Washington, DC - Hurricane Patricia Public Advisory status update as of 11:00am PST:
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA MOVING CLOSER TO
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.2N 105.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...200 MPH...325 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...879 MB...25.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to El Roblito
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 105.3 West. Patricia is
now moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast and a faster forward motion are expected this
afternoon, with this motion continuing tonight and Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Patricia should cross the coast in
the hurricane warning area during the next several hours. After
landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move quickly
north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 200 mph (325 km/h) with higher gusts.
Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this
afternoon, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane through landfall. After landfall, Patricia is
forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA aircraft data
is 879 mb (25.96 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should reach the hurricane warning area
during the next few hours, with the worst conditions likely this
afternoon and this evening. Tropical storm conditions are now
spreading across portions of the warning area. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today.
RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
